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SabahKu

Semporna

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Belaga (Sarawak), Kalabakan, Kunak · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 33th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 19th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 20th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 58th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 12th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 62th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 81th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 35th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 38th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 42th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 67th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 19th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 16th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 73th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 73th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 96th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,059

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,361)

19th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

30.4%

▼ worse than peers (25.4%)

23rd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,886

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,540)

12th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.4%

≈ in line with peers (8.4%)

9th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +GDP growth of −0.1% (2020) is 1.4 pp/yr above its structural peers (−1.4%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

What's holding it back

  • −Piped water of 70.2% (2024) is 11.6 pp below its structural peers (81.8%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Median income of RM 4,059 (2024) is 7% below its structural peers (RM 4,361), growing 3.8 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,886 (2020) is 6% below its structural peers (RM 10,540).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Poverty of 30.4% (2024) is 5.0 pp above its structural peers (25.4%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • −Income growth of 2.8% (2024) is 1.1 pp/yr below its structural peers (3.8%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

  • −Gini of 0.411 (2024) is 0.097 above its structural peers (0.314), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Sanitation of 91.3% (2024) is 8.7 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION1,937
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 6.7% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,367
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Semporna's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 232.5 RM milIndustry mix: -188.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -35.1 RM mil−2.1% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 65.8 RM milIndustry mix: 47.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -34.4 RM mil−34AgricultureBenchmark growth: 150.5 RM milIndustry mix: -229.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 13.9 RM mil+14ConstructionBenchmark growth: 3.8 RM milIndustry mix: 3.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -11.4 RM mil−11ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 12.3 RM milIndustry mix: -9.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -3.2 RM mil−3
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2015, mining 2016, mining 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,059 vs expected RM 4,262: within model error

Agriculture share of GDP-10.4%GDP per capita (2020)-6.7%Share aged 65++7.2%Unemployment rate-6.5%Labour force participation+4.2%Piped-water access-3.9%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 30.4% vs expected 35.0%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+9.6 ppPiped-water access+4.6 ppElectricity access+2.3 ppServices share of GDP+2.1 ppLabour force participation-1.4 ppGDP per capita (2020)+1.2 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BelagaSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2KalabakanSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  3. 3KunakSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4SebauhSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  5. 5NabawanSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Marudi (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.5 vs +3.0 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • population density: lower (5.00 → 1.81, log)
  • share aged 65+: higher (4.32 → 7.45, √share)
  • GDP per capita: higher (9.20 → 10.11, log)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Semporna after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +135% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012149 · 12th of 27
2025351 · 9th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,567202425/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.411202422/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,604202411/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,059202419/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households30.4%202423/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households24.0%202419/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age63.4%202414/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons96.920245/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age69.2%202416/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.4%20249/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households98.9%202422/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households70.2%202422/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households91.3%202427/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,8862020single year12/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,647.120208/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP59.9%20205/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP1.9%202015/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP4.8%202011/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP33.0%202024/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²18020256/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons201.420255/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population4.8%202525/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population45.8%20255/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−0.1%2020single year17/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year2.8%2024single year18/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year6.3%2025single year2/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year3.9%2025single year2/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area17.4%20258/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.3820258/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)35120259/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Semporna is classified in the atlas as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with a 2024 median household income of RM 4,059, ranking 19 of 28 in Sabah .

Its published district real GDP is available to 2020 (RM 1,647 at 2015 prices) and model nowcasts show gradual recovery in 2021–2024 with a 2024 p50 nowcast of RM 1,745 (80% interval RM 1,652–RM 2,039) — these later values are modelled, not official DOSM releases .

Welfare and labour indicators show mixed movement since 2019: median income rose modestly 2.8% to 2024, while absolute poverty remains high at 30.4% in 2024 .

The district economy is agriculturally concentrated, with agriculture accounting for 59.9% of GDP in 2020, and overall GDP per capita in 2020 was RM 9,886 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up