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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Nabawan

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Telang Usan (Sarawak), Sebauh (Sarawak), Marudi (Sarawak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 48th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 41th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 72th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 23th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 88th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 6th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 4th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 62th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 15th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 62th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 4th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 4th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 100th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,361

≈ in line with peers (RM 4,281)

15th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

25.4%

▼ worse than peers (4.4%)

17th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,457

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,540)

15th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

10.7%

▼ worse than peers (2.1%)

26th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Electricity of 100.0% (2024) is 3.3 pp above its structural peers (96.7%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Participation of 71.1% (2024) is 2.4 pp above its structural peers (68.7%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,457 (2020) is 10% below its structural peers (RM 10,540).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 10.7% (2024) is 8.6 pp above its structural peers (2.1%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −Piped water of 63.5% (2024) is 6.7 pp below its structural peers (70.2%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −2.1% (2020) is 2.0 pp/yr below its structural peers (−0.1%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Income growth of 3.8% (2024) is 0.7 pp/yr below its structural peers (4.5%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 25.4% (2024) is 21.0 pp above its structural peers (4.4%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
2503003504002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION308
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 6.3% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,692
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Nabawan's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 41.7 RM milIndustry mix: -37.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 23.7 RM mil+8.0% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 11.8 RM milIndustry mix: 8.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 3.9 RM mil+4AgricultureBenchmark growth: 29.9 RM milIndustry mix: -45.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 19.8 RM mil+20ConstructionBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (construction 2015, construction 2016, construction 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,361 vs expected RM 3,379: better than structure predicts

Population density-11.0%Agriculture share of GDP-10.4%Unemployment rate-9.7%GDP per capita (2020)-7.1%Labour force participation+6.4%Piped-water access-5.3%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 25.4% vs expected 24.2%: within model error

Unemployment rate+8.2 ppPiped-water access+2.9 ppGDP per capita (2020)+2.5 ppServices share of GDP+2.2 ppLabour force participation-1.5 ppAgriculture share of GDP+1.1 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1Telang UsanSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2SebauhSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  3. 3MarudiSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4SempornaSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  5. 5KalabakanSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Marudi (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.5 vs +5.9 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • GDP per capita: higher (9.15 → 10.11, log)
  • share aged 65+: higher (5.65 → 7.45, √share)
  • piped-water access: higher (63.49 → 74.05)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,55320247/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.31420248/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,146202418/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,361202415/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households25.4%202417/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households15.9%202414/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age63.2%202415/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons14.3202424/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age71.1%202411/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force10.7%202426/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households63.5%202423/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,4572020single year15/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million267.6202024/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP60.3%20204/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202024/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP39.1%202021/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²5202526/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons31.1202525/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.4%202511/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population5.1%202525/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−2.1%2020single year23/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.8%2024single year11/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year6.8%2025single year1/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.9%2025single year10/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area0.6%202526/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.01202526/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)33202525/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Nabawan is classified as "Plantation & agrarian frontier" in the district profile .

Median household income was RM 4,361 in 2024 and was RM 3,613 in 2019, showing upward movement since 2019 .

Real GDP at constant 2015 prices was RM 267.6 million in 2020 and the district’s 2015–2020 average real GDP growth was -2.1% (2015–2020), placing growth below many peers .

Model projections show income_median rising modestly in the near term with a 2025 p50 of RM 4,469 (80% interval RM 4,111–RM 4,868) and a 2026 p50 of RM 4,579 (80% interval RM 4,070–RM 5,168), both modelled rather than official .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up