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SabahKu

Kalabakan

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Belaga (Sarawak), Semporna, Sebauh (Sarawak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 11th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 30th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 65th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 15th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 92th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 27th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 8th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 19th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 38th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 31th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 46th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: no dataPowerLIGHTSRadiance: 8th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 8th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 15th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,304

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,539)

25th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

26.8%

▼ worse than peers (13.6%)

20th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 10,540

▼ worse than peers (RM 14,331)

10th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.1%

▼ worse than peers (5.9%)

19th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

No indicator is clearly above peers and holding steady.

What's holding it back

  • −Median income of RM 3,304 (2024) is 27% below its structural peers (RM 4,539), growing 11.7 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −GDP / capita of RM 10,540 (2020) is 26% below its structural peers (RM 14,331).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Income growth of −8.3% (2024) is 12.4 pp/yr below its structural peers (4.0%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 9.1% (2024) is 3.2 pp above its structural peers (5.9%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −1.4% (2020) is 1.7 pp/yr below its structural peers (0.3%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Gini of 0.447 (2024) is 0.134 above its structural peers (0.313), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 26.8% (2024) is 13.2 pp above its structural peers (13.6%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Piped water of 84.5% (2024) is 2.7 pp above its structural peers (81.8%), worsening since 2019.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
5005506006507007502016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION571
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 20.3% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,000RM 3,200RM 3,400RM 3,600RM 3,800RM 4,000RM 4,20020222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,555
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kalabakan's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 76.8 RM milIndustry mix: -68.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -26.7 RM mil−4.9% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 21.4 RM milIndustry mix: 15.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -11.0 RM mil−11AgricultureBenchmark growth: 54.0 RM milIndustry mix: -82.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -16.4 RM mil−16ConstructionBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 1.4 RM milIndustry mix: -1.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.7 RM mil+1
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (construction 2015, construction 2016, construction 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,304 vs expected RM 4,059: worse than structure predicts

Agriculture share of GDP-11.4%Share aged 65++8.4%Unemployment rate-7.4%Population density-6.8%GDP per capita (2020)-6.1%Labour force participation+4.1%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 26.8% vs expected 24.4%: within model error

Unemployment rate+8.3 ppPiped-water access+2.8 ppServices share of GDP+2.0 ppElectricity access+1.9 ppAgriculture share of GDP+1.9 ppLabour force participation-1.4 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BelagaSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2SempornaSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  3. 3SebauhSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4KunakSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  5. 5SubisSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier

Kalabakan improved at least as fast as its ten nearest structural neighbours since 2019.

Lights

Kalabakan after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +24% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201258 · 21st of 27
202571 · 22nd of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,257202428/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.447202427/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,174202417/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,304202425/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households26.8%202420/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households35.5%202426/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age62.9%202416/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons30.9202418/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age69.1%202417/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.1%202419/27lfs_district
Households with piped water% of households84.5%202415/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 10,5402020single year10/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million508.0202020/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP64.3%20203/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP1.8%202020/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP33.6%202023/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²15202525/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons59.1202519/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population4.4%202526/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population69.4%20252/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−1.4%2020single year22/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year−8.3%2024single year27/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2022–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year1.1%2025single year23/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year4.2%2025single year1/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area1.6%202525/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.02202525/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)71202522/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kalabakan is classified as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with a large agriculture share of GDP (64.3%) .

Median household income fell to RM 3,304 in 2024 after RM 3,931 in 2022, placing Kalabakan low in Sabah (rank 25 of 28) and showing a worsening trend versus its structural peers .

Real GDP was RM 508 million in 2020 and model nowcasts project a slow recovery to a 2026 central estimate of RM 549 million (80% interval RM 510–RM 667) .

Modelled median-income projections show gradual increase from RM 3,304 in 2024 to RM 3,469 in 2026 with an 80% interval RM 3,084–RM 3,915 for 2026 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up