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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Kunak

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Belaga (Sarawak), Sipitang, Semporna · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 59th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 22th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 42th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 38th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 81th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 58th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 58th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 65th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 8th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 69th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 67th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 58th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 50th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 54th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 38th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,539

≈ in line with peers (RM 4,606)

12th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

29.2%

▼ worse than peers (13.6%)

22nd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,288

▼ worse than peers (RM 13,400)

16th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.4%

≈ in line with peers (8.4%)

9th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Participation of 71.6% (2024) is 2.4 pp above its structural peers (69.2%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Electricity of 100.0% (2024) is 1.1 pp above its structural peers (98.9%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Income growth of 4.0% (2024) is 0.9 pp/yr above its structural peers (3.2%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,288 (2020) is 31% below its structural peers (RM 13,400).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Poverty of 29.2% (2024) is 15.6 pp above its structural peers (13.6%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −3.4% (2020) is 4.0 pp/yr below its structural peers (0.5%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Gini of 0.484 (2024) is 0.171 above its structural peers (0.313), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Sanitation of 96.9% (2024) is 3.1 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • Piped water of 89.1% (2024) is 2.8 pp above its structural peers (86.3%), worsening since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
6007008009001,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION739
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 26.0% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,883
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kunak's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 107.2 RM milIndustry mix: -71.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -97.5 RM mil−12.8% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 38.4 RM milIndustry mix: 27.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -29.4 RM mil−29AgricultureBenchmark growth: 62.6 RM milIndustry mix: -95.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -54.8 RM mil−55ConstructionBenchmark growth: 1.2 RM milIndustry mix: 1.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -10.6 RM mil−11ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 5.0 RM milIndustry mix: -3.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -2.7 RM mil−3
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (construction 2016, construction 2019, construction 2020); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,539 vs expected RM 4,530: within model error

GDP per capita (2020)-7.3%Agriculture share of GDP-7.1%Share aged 65++7.3%Labour force participation+6.9%Unemployment rate-6.5%Population density-0.9%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 29.2% vs expected 28.6%: within model error

Unemployment rate+8.5 ppPiped-water access+3.5 ppGDP per capita (2020)+3.3 ppServices share of GDP+2.5 ppAgriculture share of GDP+1.4 ppShare aged 65++0.9 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BelagaSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2SipitangSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3SempornaSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5SetiuTerengganuServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Setiu (Terengganu) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.0 vs +3.4 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • share aged 65+: higher (4.21 → 6.20, √share)
  • labour force participation: lower (71.60 → 64.70)
  • piped-water access: higher (89.08 → 100.00)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,797202422/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.484202428/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,60820246/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,539202412/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households29.2%202422/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households26.1%202421/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age65.6%20248/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons41.5202413/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age71.6%20249/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.4%20249/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households89.1%202412/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households96.9%202426/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,2882020single year16/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million639.9202016/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP47.1%20206/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP4.8%202012/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP47.1%202017/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²64202512/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons78.3202515/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population4.9%202523/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population53.4%20253/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−3.4%2020single year25/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year4.0%2024single year10/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year2.9%2025single year17/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.6%2025single year6/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area7.5%202513/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.10202514/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)126202518/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kunak is classed as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with a 2024 median household income of RM 4,539 and a 2024 mean household income of RM 6,608 . The district's economy remains agriculture‑weighted: agriculture accounted for 47.1% of district GDP in 2020 while services also contributed 47.1% in 2020 . Official real GDP is published to 2020 = RM 640 and model nowcasts show a gradual baseline rise to a 2026 central estimate of RM 705 with an 80% interval RM 654–RM 856 (modelled) . Median income is modelled to slowly increase from the 2024 official RM 4,539 to a 2026 central estimate RM 4,766 with an 80% interval RM 4,236–RM 5,379 (modelled) .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up