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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Sipitang

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Kunak, Setiu (Terengganu), Muallim (Perak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 63th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 59th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 35th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 23th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 77th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 15th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 42th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 0th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 65th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 77th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 8th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 42th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 38th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 81th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,606

≈ in line with peers (RM 4,801)

11th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

15.3%

▼ worse than peers (7.9%)

12th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 13,400

▼ worse than peers (RM 15,048)

8th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.7%

▼ worse than peers (4.0%)

12th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Gini of 0.306 (2024) is 0.016 below its structural peers (0.322), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 13,400 (2020) is 11% below its structural peers (RM 15,048).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −GDP growth of −5.4% (2020) is 5.9 pp/yr below its structural peers (0.5%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 8.7% (2024) is 4.7 pp above its structural peers (4.0%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −Electricity of 95.6% (2024) is 4.4 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Income growth of 3.2% (2024) is 0.9 pp/yr below its structural peers (4.0%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 15.3% (2024) is 7.4 pp above its structural peers (7.9%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Piped water of 95.6% (2024) is 4.4 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
5006007008009002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION691
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 16.6% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,955
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Sipitang's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 93.6 RM milIndustry mix: 27.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -253.5 RM mil−38.2% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 28.2 RM milIndustry mix: 20.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 6.5 RM mil+6AgricultureBenchmark growth: 17.1 RM milIndustry mix: -26.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -23.6 RM mil−24ConstructionBenchmark growth: 41.9 RM milIndustry mix: 38.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -247.2 RM mil−247ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 6.3 RM milIndustry mix: -4.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 10.9 RM mil+11
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2015, mining 2016, mining 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,606 vs expected RM 4,916: within model error

Unemployment rate-6.9%Population density-6.6%Labour force participation+6.5%GDP per capita (2020)-3.7%Share aged 65++3.8%Agriculture share of GDP+3.7%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 15.3% vs expected 19.4%: within model error

Unemployment rate+6.5 ppGDP per capita (2020)-1.4 ppPopulation density+1.1 ppLabour force participation-1.0 ppServices share of GDP+0.9 ppElectricity access+0.7 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1KunakSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2SetiuTerengganuServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3MuallimPerakServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5MaranPahangServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Sabak Bernam (Selangor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +9.7 vs +2.2 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • population density: higher (2.68 → 4.70, log)
  • agriculture share: higher (4.13 → 6.38, √share)
  • share aged 65+: higher (5.29 → 6.82, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,341202414/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.30620245/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,548202412/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,606202411/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households15.3%202412/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households9.0%20245/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age64.8%202410/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons19.2202421/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age71.2%202410/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.7%202412/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households95.6%202424/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households95.6%20247/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 13,4002020single year8/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million506.5202021/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP17.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP24.7%20201/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP10.4%20207/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP47.0%202018/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²16202523/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons40.9202522/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.1%202516/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population14.2%202512/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−5.4%2020single year27/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.2%2024single year16/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year5.6%2025single year6/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.6%2025single year12/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area5.0%202517/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.10202516/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)249202512/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Sipitang is classified as a "Services-led towns & suburbs" district in the atlas typology .

Median household income in Sipitang was RM 4,606 in 2024, with a modest rise since 2019 from RM 3,944 .

Real GDP was RM 506.5 million in 2020 and model nowcasts project growth through 2026 with a central estimate of RM 646 million in 2026 (80% interval RM 600–RM 785), signalling a modelled recovery from the 2015–2020 contraction .

Labour-market outcomes have worsened relative to peers: unemployment was 8.7% in 2024 and the district shows a long-run negative real-GDP growth average over 2015–2020 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up