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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Kudat

Typology: Rural economy with mining & quarrying · Structural peers: Beaufort, Kota Belud, Pasir Puteh (Kelantan) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 7th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 11th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 30th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 35th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 42th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 19th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 65th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 69th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 35th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 17th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 73th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 54th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 42th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 23th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,249

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,070)

26th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

35.3%

▼ worse than peers (14.4%)

25th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,112

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,196)

18th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.4%

▼ worse than peers (3.0%)

22nd of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Piped water of 95.3% (2024) is 4.7 pp above its structural peers (90.6%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Income growth of 4.6% (2024) is 1.6 pp/yr above its structural peers (3.0%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Poverty of 35.3% (2024) is 20.9 pp above its structural peers (14.4%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,112 (2020) is 11% below its structural peers (RM 10,196).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 9.4% (2024) is 6.4 pp above its structural peers (3.0%), worsening since 2023.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −0.1% (2020) is 2.5 pp/yr below its structural peers (2.4%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Gini of 0.385 (2024) is 0.024 above its structural peers (0.361), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Median income of RM 3,249 (2024) is 20% below its structural peers (RM 4,070), growing 0.8 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • Participation of 62.2% (2024) is 2.3 pp below its structural peers (64.5%), improving since 2023.

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
7008009001,0001,1001,2001,3002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION973
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 11.0% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 2,500RM 3,000RM 3,500RM 4,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,495
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kudat's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 111.2 RM milIndustry mix: -39.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -73.2 RM mil−9.3% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 1.1 RM milIndustry mix: 4.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.8 RM mil−2ServicesBenchmark growth: 49.7 RM milIndustry mix: 35.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -25.8 RM mil−26AgricultureBenchmark growth: 53.8 RM milIndustry mix: -82.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -13.2 RM mil−13ConstructionBenchmark growth: 4.7 RM milIndustry mix: 4.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -30.7 RM mil−31ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 2.0 RM milIndustry mix: -1.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.7 RM mil−2
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,249 vs expected RM 3,882: within model error

Unemployment rate-7.9%GDP per capita (2020)-7.5%Agriculture share of GDP-6.3%Labour force participation-3.5%Share aged 65++1.6%Piped-water access+1.5%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 35.3% vs expected 19.8%: worse than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+8.2 ppGDP per capita (2020)+5.9 ppServices share of GDP+2.7 ppLabour force participation+1.3 ppAgriculture share of GDP+1.3 ppShare aged 65++1.3 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BeaufortSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2Kota BeludSabahRural economy with mining & quarrying
  3. 3Pasir PutehKelantanRural economy with mining & quarrying
  4. 4RaubPahangAgeing agricultural heartland
  5. 5LimbangSarawakRural economy with mining & quarrying

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pasir Puteh (Kelantan) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +7.3 vs +5.9 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • piped-water access: lower (95.31 → 77.55)
  • population density: higher (4.21 → 5.77, log)
  • labour force participation: lower (62.20 → 57.70)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,206202415/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.385202420/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 4,571202426/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,249202426/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households35.3%202425/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households32.3%202425/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age56.4%202423/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons39.5202415/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age62.2%202423/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.4%202422/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households95.3%20248/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.4%202419/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,1122020single year18/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million787.3202012/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP44.3%20208/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP1.6%202017/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP1.5%202022/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP1.3%20205/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP51.0%202016/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²73202510/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons93.7202512/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.9%20257/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population12.6%202513/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−0.1%2020single year18/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year4.6%2024single year9/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year1.9%2025single year21/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.6%2025single year11/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area6.1%202516/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.11202513/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)111202519/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kudat is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" and had an official median household income of RM 3,249 in 2024 .

Absolute poverty has fallen since 2019 but remains high at 35.3% in 2024 .

Labour-market outcomes have worsened: unemployment rose to 9.4% in 2024 from 5.3% in 2018 while labour force participation was 62.2% in 2024 .

Modelled nowcasts project modest income and GDP growth through 2027, with the income median p50 rising from RM 3,329 (80% interval RM 3,063–RM 3,626) in 2025 to RM 3,495 (80% interval RM 3,026–RM 4,054) in 2027 and real GDP p50 rising from RM 859 million (80% interval RM 814–1,005 million) in 2024 to RM 943 million (80% interval RM 865–1,166 million) in 2027 (both modelled with 80% intervals) .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up