Atlas Ekonomi Sabah · District brief · Kudat Division
Kudat
Situation
Kudat is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" and had an official median household income of RM 3,249 in 2024 .
Absolute poverty has fallen since 2019 but remains high at 35.3% in 2024 .
Labour-market outcomes have worsened: unemployment rose to 9.4% in 2024 from 5.3% in 2018 while labour force participation was 62.2% in 2024 .
Modelled nowcasts project modest income and GDP growth through 2027, with the income median p50 rising from RM 3,329 (80% interval RM 3,063–RM 3,626) in 2025 to RM 3,495 (80% interval RM 3,026–RM 4,054) in 2027 and real GDP p50 rising from RM 859 million (80% interval RM 814–1,005 million) in 2024 to RM 943 million (80% interval RM 865–1,166 million) in 2027 (both modelled with 80% intervals) .
Strengths
- High electricity coverage (100% of households) is flagged as in line with peers and improving .
- High piped-water access (95.3% households) is scored as a strength versus peers .
- Median household income growth since 2019 is above peers, marked as a strength .
Constraints
- Absolute poverty rate is a major concern, with level well below peers and a worsening trend .
- Unemployment is a concern: the 2024 unemployment rate is well below peers and worsening .
- Low GDP per capita and weak historical real GDP growth are scored as concerns versus structural peers .
- Income and poverty performance are worse than structural expectations with unemployment and low GDP per capita among the top associated negative drivers for median income and poverty .
Options
- Expand active labour-market programmes (training + placement) targeted at reducing unemployment; Evidence: moderate — unemployment is a top associated driver in the atlas and peer Pasir Puteh improved welfare momentum since 2019 .
- Prioritise rural infrastructure that lowers transaction costs (roads, logistics) to support agricultural value-adding; Evidence: limited — national plans prioritise rural infrastructure expansion but local evaluation evidence is not cited .
- Support services and agriculture diversification programmes to raise GDP per capita and household incomes; Evidence: limited — drivers link agriculture and services shares to outcomes but evaluated program impacts for Kudat are not present in the documents .
Uncertainties
- Recent welfare and GDP projections for 2021–2027 are modelled (nowcasts/projections) and carry 80% intervals; GDP backtest error widens at 3 years .
- Shift-share shows mixed competitive and industry-mix effects across 2015–2020, complicating attribution of past GDP change .
- Driver models report expected values with prediction error margins for income and poverty, indicating model uncertainty about how much structural factors explain current gaps .
What data would change this view
- District-level evaluated impact studies of labour-market or rural-infrastructure interventions in Kudat or its structural peers would upgrade evidence strength from limited to strong .
- Official post-2020 district GDP by industry (published by DOSM) would reduce reliance on modelled nowcasts and narrow uncertainty in growth attribution .
- More frequent labour-force surveys at district level would clarify the causes of rising unemployment and improve targeting of interventions .