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SabahKu

Kota Belud

Typology: Rural economy with mining & quarrying · Structural peers: Pasir Puteh (Kelantan), Limbang (Sarawak), Beaufort · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 22th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 37th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 41th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 8th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 54th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 69th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 31th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 69th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 38th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 88th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 23th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 38th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 58th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 65th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 65th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,512

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,070)

22nd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

26.1%

▼ worse than peers (20.4%)

18th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 6,138

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,127)

25th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.7%

≈ in line with peers (8.8%)

12th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +GDP growth of 3.1% (2020) is 2.2 pp/yr above its structural peers (0.9%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

  • +Gini of 0.361 (2024) is 0.012 below its structural peers (0.373), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 6,138 (2020) is 39% below its structural peers (RM 10,127).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Median income of RM 3,512 (2024) is 14% below its structural peers (RM 4,070), growing 2.2 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Piped water of 80.3% (2024) is 10.3 pp below its structural peers (90.6%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • Poverty of 26.1% (2024) is 5.7 pp above its structural peers (20.4%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
5006007008009001,0001,1002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION867
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 13.3% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,000RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,778
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kota Belud's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 79.4 RM milIndustry mix: -11.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 27.3 RM mil+4.8% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 1.3 RM milIndustry mix: 5.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.8 RM mil−2ServicesBenchmark growth: 43.9 RM milIndustry mix: 31.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -3.7 RM mil−4AgricultureBenchmark growth: 31.5 RM milIndustry mix: -48.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 33.7 RM mil+34ConstructionBenchmark growth: 0.7 RM milIndustry mix: 0.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.2 RM mil−1ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 2.0 RM milIndustry mix: -1.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.3 RM mil+0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,512 vs expected RM 3,906: within model error

GDP per capita (2020)-11.3%Unemployment rate-6.9%Agriculture share of GDP-4.5%Share aged 65++3.5%Piped-water access-1.7%Labour force participation-1.1%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 26.1% vs expected 30.9%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+9.2 ppGDP per capita (2020)+5.4 ppPiped-water access+3.5 ppElectricity access-1.3 ppManufacturing share of GDP-1.0 ppAgriculture share of GDP+0.9 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1Pasir PutehKelantanRural economy with mining & quarrying
  2. 2LimbangSarawakRural economy with mining & quarrying
  3. 3BeaufortSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4KudatSabahRural economy with mining & quarrying
  5. 5TuaranSabahRural economy with mining & quarrying

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pasir Puteh (Kelantan) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +7.3 vs +4.6 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • labour force participation: lower (64.50 → 57.70)
  • population density: higher (4.39 → 5.77, log)
  • GDP per capita: higher (8.72 → 9.27, log)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Kota Belud after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +135% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201297 · 13th of 27
2025228 · 13th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,920202419/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.361202417/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,007202420/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,512202422/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households26.1%202418/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households17.0%202415/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age58.9%202421/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons48.8202411/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age64.5%202421/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.7%202412/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households80.3%202417/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.5%202418/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 6,1382020single year25/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million658.0202015/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP37.9%20209/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.8%202019/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP2.1%202019/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP1.9%20204/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP57.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²8420259/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons111.5202511/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.2%202515/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population4.2%202527/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year3.1%2020single year4/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.0%2024single year17/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year4.6%2025single year10/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.8%2025single year22/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area11.7%202510/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.18202512/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)228202513/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kota Belud is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" by the atlas typology .

Median household income was RM 3,512 in 2024 and has risen from RM 3,025 in 2019, showing modest welfare momentum since 2019 .

Official district GDP is published to 2020 at RM 658.0 million (2015 prices), and model nowcasts project continued real GDP growth with a 2025 central estimate of RM 774 million and an 80% interval RM 728–RM 921, noting these are modelled values not official releases .

The district’s absolute poverty rate improved to 26.1% in 2024 from 34.0% in 2019, though it remains above its structural peers’ median .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up