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SabahKu

Tuaran

Typology: Rural economy with mining & quarrying · Structural peers: Pasir Puteh (Kelantan), Baling (Kedah), Beaufort · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 44th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 44th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 59th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 50th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 77th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 31th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 19th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 42th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 54th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 85th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,277

▲ better than peers (RM 4,070)

16th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

23.7%

▼ worse than peers (14.7%)

16th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,571

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,645)

14th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.8%

▼ worse than peers (4.9%)

16th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Piped water of 88.4% (2024) is 8.1 pp above its structural peers (80.3%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Median income of RM 4,277 (2024) is 5% above its structural peers (RM 4,070), growing 1.1 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).Strength

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • +GDP growth of 2.9% (2020) is 1.1 pp/yr above its structural peers (1.8%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,571 (2020) is 10% below its structural peers (RM 10,645).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 8.8% (2024) is 3.9 pp above its structural peers (4.9%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 23.7% (2024) is 9.0 pp above its structural peers (14.7%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Gini of 0.342 (2024) is 0.011 above its structural peers (0.331), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION1,745
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 7.2% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,601
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Tuaran's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 157.9 RM milIndustry mix: -2.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 113.1 RM mil+10.1% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 2.8 RM milIndustry mix: 12.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.1 RM mil−1ServicesBenchmark growth: 84.8 RM milIndustry mix: 60.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 26.8 RM mil+27AgricultureBenchmark growth: 43.5 RM milIndustry mix: -66.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 75.0 RM mil+75ConstructionBenchmark growth: 6.3 RM milIndustry mix: 5.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 5.7 RM mil+6ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 20.4 RM milIndustry mix: -15.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 6.7 RM mil+7
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,277 vs expected RM 4,321: within model error

GDP per capita (2020)-7.0%Unemployment rate-7.0%Share aged 65++3.1%Labour force participation-2.1%Population density+1.9%Agriculture share of GDP-1.1%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 23.7% vs expected 22.9%: within model error

Unemployment rate+6.4 ppPiped-water access+2.6 ppGDP per capita (2020)+1.0 ppManufacturing share of GDP+0.7 ppElectricity access-0.7 ppServices share of GDP+0.6 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1Pasir PutehKelantanRural economy with mining & quarrying
  2. 2BalingKedahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3BeaufortSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4Kota BeludSabahRural economy with mining & quarrying
  5. 5MachangKelantanRural economy with mining & quarrying

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pasir Puteh (Kelantan) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +7.3 vs +1.3 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • manufacturing share: lower (3.42 → 1.18, √share)
  • labour force participation: lower (63.50 → 57.70)
  • piped-water access: lower (88.40 → 77.55)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Tuaran after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +149% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012297 · 7th of 27
2025739 · 5th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,185202416/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.342202412/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,388202414/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,277202416/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households23.7%202416/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households13.9%202412/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age57.9%202422/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons60.5202410/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age63.5%202422/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.8%202416/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households88.4%202413/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.7%202416/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,5712020single year14/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,298.8202011/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP28.2%202015/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP3.7%202011/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP11.7%20205/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP2.3%20203/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP53.8%202015/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²12820257/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons142.8202510/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.3%202514/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population6.6%202520/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year2.9%2020single year5/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year2.7%2024single year19/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year6.0%2025single year4/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.0%2025single year17/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area27.4%20254/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.7020255/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)73920255/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Tuaran is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" and had a median household income of RM 4,277 in 2024 . Tuaran's GDP at constant 2015 prices was RM 1,299 in 2020 and its 2015–2020 average real GDP growth was 2.9% . Since 2020 the atlas nowcasts real GDP upward through 2025 and projects continued modest growth to 2026, with the 2025 central estimate p50 = RM 1,551 (80% interval RM 1,460–1,847 million) and the 2026 p50 = RM 1,613 (80% interval RM 1,497–1,958 million) (80% intervals reported) . Median household income is nowcast to rise gradually from the 2024 official RM 4,277 to p50 = RM 4,382 in 2025 with an 80% interval RM 4,032–RM 4,774 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up