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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah
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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah · District brief · West Coast Division

Tuaran

AI-generated · unreviewed draftData release 2026.09.26 · 34/34 citations verified · azure:gpt-5-mini
Income: 44th percentile in Sabah (2024)Poverty: 44th percentile in Sabah (2024)Gini: 59th percentile in Sabah (2024)GDP/cap: 50th percentile in Sabah (2020)Services: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgri: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfg: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveDensity: 77th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveInc. growth: 31th percentile in Sabah (2024)GDP growth: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020)LFPR: 19th percentile in Sabah (2024)Jobless: 42th percentile in Sabah (2024)Water: 54th percentile in Sabah (2024)Power: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)Radiance: 85th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit area: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLights growth: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025)

Situation

Tuaran is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" and had a median household income of RM 4,277 in 2024 . Tuaran's GDP at constant 2015 prices was RM 1,299 in 2020 and its 2015–2020 average real GDP growth was 2.9% . Since 2020 the atlas nowcasts real GDP upward through 2025 and projects continued modest growth to 2026, with the 2025 central estimate p50 = RM 1,551 (80% interval RM 1,460–1,847 million) and the 2026 p50 = RM 1,613 (80% interval RM 1,497–1,958 million) (80% intervals reported) . Median household income is nowcast to rise gradually from the 2024 official RM 4,277 to p50 = RM 4,382 in 2025 with an 80% interval RM 4,032–RM 4,774 .

Strengths

  • Above-peer median household income level and an improving trend versus structural peers .
  • Above-peer access to piped water with an improving trend .
  • Historical competitive contribution to GDP growth (positive competitive effect in shift-share over 2015–2020) .

Constraints

  • Unemployment is a concern: the 2024 unemployment rate is 8.8%, well above the peer median and with a flat recent trend .
  • Absolute poverty rate is materially worse than peers (23.7% in 2024) despite recent improvement .
  • GDP per capita is below the peer median (2020 RM 9,571 vs peer median RM 10,645) .
  • Atlas structural drivers associate higher unemployment and lower labour force participation with weaker income and higher poverty in Tuaran .

Options

  • Prioritise active labour-market interventions (short-term training and placement) to reduce unemployment and raise incomes; Evidence: moderate — unemployment is a top associated factor for poverty and income in the drivers, and positive-deviant peer Pasir Puteh shows faster welfare momentum to investigate as precedent .
  • Expand targeted poverty alleviation and cash-transfer programmes focused on high-poverty localities within Tuaran; Evidence: limited — the atlas shows high absolute poverty versus peers but national/subnational programme evaluations are not in the returned corpus (budget allocations for school infrastructure exist but are not impact evaluations) .
  • Leverage competitive sectors (manufacturing/services) identified in the shift-share competitive effect by supporting firm-level productivity (incentives, logistics); Evidence: moderate — the shift-share shows a positive competitive contribution 2015–2020 that could be built on .

Uncertainties

  • Latest GDP and income beyond 2020 and 2024 are modelled nowcasts/projections rather than published official district GDPs and carry 80% intervals .
  • Forecast backtest error is non-negligible for gdp_real (1-yr 1.9%, 2-yr 6.3%, 3-yr 7.2%), which affects confidence in short-term projections .
  • Drivers are associative not causal, so interventions informed by drivers require evaluated pilots .

What data would change this view

  • Official district-level real GDP for 2021–2025 from DOSM would replace modelled nowcasts and shrink uncertainty about growth and sector composition .
  • Impact evaluations (experimental or quasi-experimental) of local labour-market or poverty programmes in Tuaran or its peers would upgrade evidence from associative to strong for specific options .

Sources cited

  1. [D1] Tuaran · Median household income · 2024 = RM 4,277 (DOSM hh_income_district; rank 16 of 28 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-12-31)
  2. [D9] Tuaran · GDP at constant 2015 prices · 2020 = 1,298.8 (DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; 11 of 27 in Sabah by size, 1 = highest (descriptive, not good or bad)) (source updated 2024-11-02)
  3. [D11] Tuaran · Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average · 2020 = 2.9% (derived by the atlas from DOSM data; rank 5 of 27 in Sabah, 1 = best; note: window:2015-2020)
  4. [D21] Tuaran · Agriculture share of GDP · 2020 = 28.2% (derived by the atlas from DOSM data; 15 of 27 in Sabah by size, 1 = highest (descriptive, not good or bad))
  5. [D26] Tuaran · Households with piped water 2024: 88.4% vs peer median 80.3%; level above; trend improving (+5.95/yr, 2022–2024); verdict STRENGTH (source updated 2026-08-03)
  6. [D27] Tuaran · Median household income 2024: RM 4,277 vs peer median RM 4,070; level above; trend improving (+1.08/yr, 2022–2024); verdict STRENGTH (source updated 2025-12-31)
  7. [D29] Tuaran · GDP per capita 2020: RM 9,571 vs peer median RM 10,645; level below; trend n/a; verdict CONCERN
  8. [D30] Tuaran · Unemployment rate 2024: 8.8% vs peer median 4.9%; level below; trend flat (-0.10/yr, 2023–2024); verdict CONCERN (source updated 2025-06-30)
  9. [D31] Tuaran · Absolute poverty rate 2024: 23.7% vs peer median 14.7%; level below; trend improving (+1.05/yr, 2022–2024); verdict MIXED (source updated 2025-12-31)
  10. [D42] Positive deviant for Tuaran: Pasir Puteh (Kelantan) improved faster since 2019 (welfare momentum 7.3 vs 1.3); differs in: manufacturing share lower (3.42 vs 1.18); labour force participation lower (63.50 vs 57.70); piped-water access lower (88.40 vs 77.55)
  11. [D43] Tuaran · income_median latest official 2024 = RM 4,277
  12. [D44] Tuaran · income_median 2025 projection (baseline): p50 RM 4,382 (80% interval RM 4,032–RM 4,774)
  13. [D49] Tuaran · gdp_real 2021 nowcast: p50 1,314 (80% interval 1,272–1,366)
  14. [D52] Tuaran · gdp_real 2024 nowcast: p50 1,475 (80% interval 1,396–1,724)
  15. [D53] Tuaran · gdp_real 2025 nowcast: p50 1,551 (80% interval 1,460–1,847)
  16. [D54] Tuaran · gdp_real 2026 projection (baseline): p50 1,613 (80% interval 1,497–1,958)
  17. [D57] Backtest absolute error for Tuaran gdp_real: 1-yr 1.9%, 2-yr 6.3%, 3-yr 7.2%
  18. [D58] Tuaran GDP 2015–2019 vs Sabah: change +268.2; benchmark effect +157.9; industry mix -2.8; competitive +113.1
  19. [D60] Tuaran GDP 2015–2020 vs Sabah: change +173.8; benchmark effect +52.4; industry mix -2.9; competitive +124.3
  20. [D62] Tuaran Median household income 2024: actual RM 4,277, expected RM 4,321 (within model error; CV error ±RM 649; model ridge); top associated factors: GDP per capita (2020) -0.073; Unemployment rate -0.073; Share aged 65+ +0.031; Labour force participation -0.022
  21. [D63] Tuaran Absolute poverty rate 2024: actual 23.7%, expected 22.9% (within model error; CV error ±4.1%; model lightgbm); top associated factors: Unemployment rate +6.406; Piped-water access +2.557; GDP per capita (2020) +1.017; Manufacturing share of GDP +0.689
  22. [R1] Budget 2024 Speech (English), Ministry of Finance, Malaysia, p. 101. https://belanjawan.mof.gov.my/pdf/belanjawan2024/ucapan/ub24-BI.pdf

Generated by the Atlas AI Analyst from official DOSM statistics and the atlas models. Every factual sentence is cited; the validator removed 0 unsupported sentence(s). This draft has not yet been reviewed by a person.