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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Tongod

Typology: Remote interior, low service access · Structural peers: Bachok (Kelantan), Jeli (Kelantan), Tumpat (Kelantan) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 17th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 56th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 0th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 31th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 19th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 0th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 42th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 8th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 0th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 0th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 0th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,470

▼ worse than peers (RM 3,904)

23rd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

41.5%

▼ worse than peers (12.7%)

27th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 4,510

▼ worse than peers (RM 10,086)

27th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.7%

▼ worse than peers (3.2%)

25th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Income growth of 9.6% (2024) is 7.4 pp/yr above its structural peers (2.2%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 4,510 (2020) is 55% below its structural peers (RM 10,086).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Piped water of 53.4% (2024) is 17.2 pp below its structural peers (70.6%), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 9.7% (2024) is 6.5 pp above its structural peers (3.2%), worsening since 2023.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of 0.1% (2020) is 2.6 pp/yr below its structural peers (2.7%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 41.5% (2024) is 28.8 pp above its structural peers (12.7%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Median income of RM 3,470 (2024) is 11% below its structural peers (RM 3,904), growing 6.9 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • Participation of 52.8% (2024) is 2.9 pp below its structural peers (55.7%), improving since 2023.

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
2002503002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION251
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 4.1% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 2,000RM 2,500RM 3,000RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,733
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Tongod's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 26.8 RM milIndustry mix: -2.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -23.6 RM mil−12.4% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 11.2 RM milIndustry mix: 8.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -8.4 RM mil−8AgricultureBenchmark growth: 3.7 RM milIndustry mix: -5.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 5.2 RM mil+5ConstructionBenchmark growth: 2.8 RM milIndustry mix: 2.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -20.4 RM mil−20ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 9.0 RM milIndustry mix: -6.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.0 RM mil−0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,470 vs expected RM 3,040: within model error

GDP per capita (2020)-14.1%Labour force participation-13.0%Population density-11.4%Unemployment rate-8.3%Piped-water access-7.4%Agriculture share of GDP+4.1%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 41.5% vs expected 25.1%: worse than structure predicts

GDP per capita (2020)+9.9 ppUnemployment rate+9.4 ppPiped-water access+6.0 ppLabour force participation+4.2 ppServices share of GDP+3.5 ppElectricity access-1.1 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BachokKelantanRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2JeliKelantanRemote interior, low service access
  3. 3TumpatKelantanRemote interior, low service access
  4. 4Kota MaruduSabahRemote interior, low service access
  5. 5LawasSarawakRemote interior, low service access

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Telupid (Sabah) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +14.0 vs +12.6 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • GDP per capita: higher (8.41 → 9.94, log)
  • piped-water access: higher (53.39 → 80.50)
  • services share: lower (6.85 → 4.64, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,465202427/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.344202413/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 4,090202428/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,470202423/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households41.5%202427/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households28.0%202423/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age47.8%202427/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons16.8202422/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age52.8%202427/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.7%202425/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households53.4%202426/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 4,5102020single year27/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million192.6202025/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP16.2%202022/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP2.7%202012/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP33.4%20202/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP46.9%202019/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²4202527/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons43.7202521/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.4%202513/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population37.1%20259/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year0.1%2020single year16/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year9.6%2024single year2/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year−4.5%2025single year27/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.5%2025single year26/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area0.2%202527/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.00202527/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)17202527/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Tongod is a remote-interior district with low service access according to the atlas typology . Median household income was RM 3,470 in 2024 and has risen since 2019, with median income growth of 9.6% between 2019 and 2024 . Real GDP is published only to 2020 (RM 193 million at 2015 prices) and nowcasts project gradual recovery to a 2026 central estimate of RM 233 million with an 80% interval RM 216–RM 283 — these modelled values are nowcasts/projections, not official post‑2020 GDP . The district shows large absolute poverty but a recent improvement: absolute poverty fell to 41.5% in 2024 from 56.6% in 2019 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up