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SabahKu

Kota Marudu

Typology: Remote interior, low service access · Structural peers: Lawas (Sarawak), Pakan (Sarawak), Maradong (Sarawak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 7th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 27th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 69th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 58th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 15th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 46th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 54th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 31th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 12th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 27th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 46th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 50th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 77th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 2,877

▼ worse than peers (RM 3,742)

27th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

40.0%

▼ worse than peers (14.5%)

26th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 8,153

≈ in line with peers (RM 8,485)

20th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.7%

▼ worse than peers (2.5%)

12th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Income growth of 3.5% (2024) is 1.3 pp/yr above its structural peers (2.2%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Median income of RM 2,877 (2024) is 23% below its structural peers (RM 3,742), growing roughly in step with Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 8.7% (2024) is 6.2 pp above its structural peers (2.5%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −0.5% (2020) is 2.3 pp/yr below its structural peers (1.8%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Sanitation of 98.9% (2024) is 1.1 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Gini of 0.421 (2024) is 0.106 above its structural peers (0.315), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 40.0% (2024) is 25.5 pp above its structural peers (14.5%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Participation of 61.2% (2024) is 2.9 pp below its structural peers (64.1%), improving since 2023.

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
5006007008009001,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION753
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 1.4% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 2,400RM 2,600RM 2,800RM 3,000RM 3,200RM 3,400RM 3,600201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,095
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kota Marudu's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 81.5 RM milIndustry mix: -19.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -21.7 RM mil−3.8% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 43.0 RM milIndustry mix: 30.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.2 RM mil−0AgricultureBenchmark growth: 34.2 RM milIndustry mix: -52.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -10.2 RM mil−10ConstructionBenchmark growth: 3.3 RM milIndustry mix: 3.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -10.3 RM mil−10ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 1.0 RM milIndustry mix: -0.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.9 RM mil−1
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2015, mining 2016, mining 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 2,877 vs expected RM 3,752: worse than structure predicts

GDP per capita (2020)-8.6%Unemployment rate-6.9%Labour force participation-4.6%Piped-water access-2.9%Population density-2.8%Agriculture share of GDP-1.9%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 40.0% vs expected 16.3%: worse than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+9.5 ppGDP per capita (2020)+7.0 ppPiped-water access+4.3 ppLabour force participation+3.0 ppElectricity access-1.2 ppShare aged 65++1.1 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1LawasSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2PakanSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  3. 3MaradongSarawakAgeing agricultural heartland
  4. 4TumpatKelantanRemote interior, low service access
  5. 5JeliKelantanRemote interior, low service access

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pakan (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.7 vs +4.7 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • piped-water access: higher (74.74 → 90.91)
  • GDP per capita: lower (9.01 → 8.32, log)
  • share aged 65+: higher (6.91 → 8.39, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Kota Marudu after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +135% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201277 · 17th of 27
2025182 · 16th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,466202413/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.421202424/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 4,685202425/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 2,877202427/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households40.0%202426/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households38.8%202427/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age55.9%202424/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons29.3202419/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age61.2%202424/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.7%202412/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households74.7%202420/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households98.9%202423/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 8,1532020single year20/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million566.7202018/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP30.3%202012/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP4.2%20208/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP1.0%202023/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP63.8%20209/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²42202515/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons74.8202517/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.8%20258/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population4.8%202526/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−0.5%2020single year19/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.5%2024single year13/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year5.5%2025single year7/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.5%2025single year13/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area7.2%202514/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.10202515/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)182202516/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kota Marudu is classified as a "Remote interior, low service access" district in the atlas typology . Median household income was RM 2,877 in 2024 and has risen from RM 2,425 in 2019, giving modest welfare momentum since 2019 . Absolute poverty has fallen from 46.1% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2024 but remains well above its structural peers . Official district real GDP is published to 2020 (RM 567 at 2015 prices); all later GDP values are model nowcasts and projections with stated intervals .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up