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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Tawau

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Segamat (Johor), Sandakan, Kuala Selangor (Selangor) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 70th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 74th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 26th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 77th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 62th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 31th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 81th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 85th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 50th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 88th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 81th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 8th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,852

▼ worse than peers (RM 6,451)

9th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

13.2%

▼ worse than peers (6.0%)

8th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 17,539

▼ worse than peers (RM 18,916)

7th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

7.1%

▼ worse than peers (4.9%)

5th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Participation of 73.3% (2024) is 2.0 pp above its structural peers (71.3%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Median income of RM 4,852 (2024) is 25% below its structural peers (RM 6,451), growing 2.6 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −GDP / capita of RM 17,539 (2020) is 7% below its structural peers (RM 18,916).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 7.1% (2024) is 2.2 pp above its structural peers (4.9%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of 0.7% (2020) is 1.3 pp/yr below its structural peers (2.0%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Sanitation of 98.7% (2024) is 1.3 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Gini of 0.389 (2024) is 0.054 above its structural peers (0.335), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 13.2% (2024) is 7.2 pp above its structural peers (6.0%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
6,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION8,586
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 2.9% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,220
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Tawau's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 886.5 RM milIndustry mix: -4.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -81.2 RM mil−1.3% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 4.5 RM milIndustry mix: 20.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.4 RM mil−1ServicesBenchmark growth: 522.7 RM milIndustry mix: 373.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -197.1 RM mil−197AgricultureBenchmark growth: 217.2 RM milIndustry mix: -331.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 146.7 RM mil+147ConstructionBenchmark growth: 25.4 RM milIndustry mix: 23.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 2.3 RM mil+2ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 116.6 RM milIndustry mix: -89.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -31.7 RM mil−32
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,852 vs expected RM 5,550: worse than structure predicts

Labour force participation+9.0%Unemployment rate-4.6%Population density+3.8%Share aged 65++2.6%Piped-water access+2.4%Agriculture share of GDP+1.2%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 13.2% vs expected 10.0%: within model error

Unemployment rate+6.2 ppPiped-water access-2.9 ppGDP per capita (2020)-0.9 ppLabour force participation-0.7 ppManufacturing share of GDP+0.6 ppElectricity access-0.4 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1SegamatJohorServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2SandakanSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3Kuala SelangorSelangorServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4LangkawiKedahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5SamarahanSarawakServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Sabak Bernam (Selangor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +9.7 vs +2.1 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • mining share: lower (0.83 → 0.00, √share)
  • agriculture share: higher (4.73 → 6.38, √share)
  • share aged 65+: higher (5.56 → 6.82, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,182202417/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.389202421/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,75120244/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,85220249/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households13.2%20248/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households13.0%202411/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age68.2%20244/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons219.720243/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age73.3%20244/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force7.1%20245/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households99.2%20242/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households98.7%202424/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 17,5392020single year7/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million6,535.220203/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP22.3%202019/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP1.7%202016/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP11.4%20206/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.7%20207/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP63.4%202011/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²20020255/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons416.420253/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.6%202510/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population34.3%202510/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year0.7%2020single year14/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year1.9%2024single year23/27Derived⚑ Boundary change — includes Kalabakan · Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year−0.3%2025single year25/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.2%2025single year7/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area17.9%20256/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.7420254/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)1,47520252/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Tawau is classified as a "Services-led towns & suburbs" district with large population and labour force relative to Sabah's districts .

Median household income was RM 4,852 in 2024 and has grown slowly since 2019 (median income growth 1.9% over 2019–2024) .

Real GDP published to 2020 was RM 6,535 (2015 prices), and model nowcasts project GDP rising to a 2026 central estimate of RM 7,958 (80% interval RM 7,384–RM 9,663) for the baseline scenario .

Labour-market participation is high while unemployment has risen; labour force participation was 73.3% and unemployment 7.1% in 2024 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up