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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Sandakan

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Kuala Selangor (Selangor), Manjung (Perak), Segamat (Johor) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 63th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 48th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 50th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 27th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 88th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 88th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 27th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 54th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 88th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 81th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 69th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 12th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 5,314

▼ worse than peers (RM 6,451)

5th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

15.2%

▼ worse than peers (3.1%)

11th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 18,017

▼ worse than peers (RM 24,884)

5th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

6.8%

▼ worse than peers (2.6%)

4th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Participation of 73.0% (2024) is 2.0 pp above its structural peers (71.0%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 18,017 (2020) is 28% below its structural peers (RM 24,884).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Unemployment of 6.8% (2024) is 4.2 pp above its structural peers (2.6%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −Piped water of 96.7% (2024) is 3.3 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −GDP growth of 0.8% (2020) is 1.4 pp/yr below its structural peers (2.2%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

Mixed signals

  • Median income of RM 5,314 (2024) is 18% below its structural peers (RM 6,451), growing 1.5 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • Poverty of 15.2% (2024) is 12.1 pp above its structural peers (3.1%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
7,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00013,00014,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION10,341
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 0.8% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000RM 6,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,717
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Sandakan's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 1066.1 RM milIndustry mix: -78.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 8.5 RM mil+0.1% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 1.4 RM milIndustry mix: 6.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.7 RM mil−1ServicesBenchmark growth: 556.4 RM milIndustry mix: 397.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -199.3 RM mil−199AgricultureBenchmark growth: 201.5 RM milIndustry mix: -307.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 135.1 RM mil+135ConstructionBenchmark growth: 36.1 RM milIndustry mix: 32.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 36.0 RM mil+36ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 270.8 RM milIndustry mix: -207.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 37.4 RM mil+37
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 5,314 vs expected RM 5,646: within model error

Labour force participation+8.6%Population density+4.5%Unemployment rate-4.1%Agriculture share of GDP+3.4%Share aged 65++2.4%Piped-water access+1.8%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 15.2% vs expected 10.3%: worse than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+5.9 ppPiped-water access-1.6 ppGDP per capita (2020)-1.0 ppLabour force participation-0.7 ppManufacturing share of GDP+0.6 ppElectricity access-0.5 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1Kuala SelangorSelangorServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2ManjungPerakServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3SegamatJohorServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4TawauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5Batu PahatJohorMetropolitan & industrial core

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Sabak Bernam (Selangor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +9.7 vs +3.2 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • manufacturing share: lower (4.92 → 2.17, √share)
  • agriculture share: higher (4.18 → 6.38, √share)
  • mining share: lower (0.43 → 0.00, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,67720244/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.355202415/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,64820245/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 5,31420245/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households15.2%202411/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households12.0%20249/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age68.1%20245/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons261.520242/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age73.0%20245/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force6.8%20244/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households96.7%20245/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 18,0172020single year5/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million7,911.120202/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP17.5%202020/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP2.0%202014/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP24.2%20204/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.2%202012/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP55.5%202014/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²23420254/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons504.520252/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.7%20259/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population38.7%20258/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year0.8%2020single year13/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year2.6%2024single year20/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year0.0%2025single year24/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.8%2025single year5/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area16.5%20259/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.6520256/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)1,23020253/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Sandakan is classified as a "Services-led towns & suburbs" district with median household income RM 5,314 in 2024 and mean household income RM 6,648 in 2024 .

Absolute poverty has fallen from 18.2% in 2019 to 15.2% in 2024 while median income grew 2.6% since 2019, showing modest welfare improvement since 2019 .

Real GDP is only published to 2020 (RM 7,911) and model nowcasts project growth through 2026 with an 80% interval; the central model projection for 2026 GDP is RM 9,593 (p50) with an 80% interval RM 8,901–RM 11,649 .

Labour-market participation is relatively strong at 73.0% in 2024 but unemployment remains elevated at 6.8% in 2024 versus peer medians, indicating labour under‑utilisation despite higher participation .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up