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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Penampang

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Langkawi (Kedah), Putatan, Sibu (Sarawak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 100th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 69th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 4th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 35th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 92th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 19th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 100th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 100th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 92th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 92th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 92th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 35th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 6,090

▲ better than peers (RM 5,737)

2nd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

5.7%

▲ better than peers (6.9%)

1st of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 11,871

▼ worse than peers (RM 25,674)

9th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

5.8%

≈ in line with peers (5.9%)

1st of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +GDP growth of 3.6% (2020) is 2.8 pp/yr above its structural peers (0.9%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

  • +Poverty of 5.7% (2024) is 1.2 pp below its structural peers (6.9%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • +Participation of 74.4% (2024) is 1.1 pp above its structural peers (73.3%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 11,871 (2020) is 54% below its structural peers (RM 25,674).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Gini of 0.348 (2024) is 0.013 above its structural peers (0.335), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Median income of RM 6,090 (2024) is 6% above its structural peers (RM 5,737), growing 4.8 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • Piped water of 98.0% (2024) is 1.2 pp below its structural peers (99.2%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION3,096
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 10.4% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 5,500RM 6,000RM 6,500RM 7,000RM 7,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 6,552
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Penampang's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 225.9 RM milIndustry mix: 150.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -32.4 RM mil−2.0% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.8 RM milIndustry mix: 3.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.2 RM mil−0ServicesBenchmark growth: 198.8 RM milIndustry mix: 141.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -76.2 RM mil−76AgricultureBenchmark growth: 3.0 RM milIndustry mix: -4.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.7 RM mil+1ConstructionBenchmark growth: 16.2 RM milIndustry mix: 14.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 46.5 RM mil+47ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 7.1 RM milIndustry mix: -5.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -3.1 RM mil−3
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 6,090 vs expected RM 6,393: within model error

Agriculture share of GDP+17.6%Labour force participation+10.3%Population density+6.8%GDP per capita (2020)-4.9%Unemployment rate-2.7%Piped-water access+2.1%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 5.7% vs expected 5.5%: within model error

Unemployment rate+4.9 ppPiped-water access-2.4 ppServices share of GDP-2.2 ppAgriculture share of GDP-1.8 ppManufacturing share of GDP-1.0 ppLabour force participation-1.0 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1LangkawiKedahServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2PutatanSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3SibuSarawakServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4TawauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5Kota KinabaluSabahMetropolitan & industrial core

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Putatan (Sabah) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +5.9 vs +1.8 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • mining share: lower (0.70 → 0.00, √share)
  • population density: higher (5.94 → 7.58, log)
  • share aged 65+: lower (6.78 → 5.09, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 4,23420242/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.348202414/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 7,55020242/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 6,09020242/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households5.7%20241/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households5.9%20243/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age70.1%20242/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons87.620247/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age74.4%20242/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force5.8%20241/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households98.0%20243/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 11,8712020single year9/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,925.420206/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP1.0%202026/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP11.9%20202/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP2.3%202018/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.5%20209/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP83.9%20202/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²39120253/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons166.820256/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population8.2%20251/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population11.1%202514/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year3.6%2020single year1/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year2.1%2024single year22/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year2.9%2025single year18/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.6%2025single year25/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area39.9%20253/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹2.4720253/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)1,06520254/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Penampang is classified as "Services-led towns & suburbs" in the district profile .

Median household income was RM 6,090 in 2024 and ranked 2 of 28 in Sabah .

Real GDP at constant 2015 prices was RM 1,925 in 2020 and the modelled 2024 nowcast p50 is RM 2,392 (80% interval RM 2,265–RM 2,796) — post-2020 GDP values are modelled .

The modelled 2026 projection for median income is p50 RM 6,394 with 80% interval RM 5,684–RM 7,216, noting post-2024 income values are modelled .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up