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SabahKu

Lahad Datu

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Kluang (Johor), Segamat (Johor), Muallim (Perak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 89th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 70th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 88th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 19th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 62th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 92th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 42th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 23th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 77th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 62th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 24th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 38th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 31th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 42th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 5,526

≈ in line with peers (RM 5,685)

4th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

13.6%

▼ worse than peers (5.7%)

9th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 19,593

▼ worse than peers (RM 24,884)

4th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

7.5%

▼ worse than peers (2.8%)

6th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Income growth of 5.7% (2024) is 2.6 pp/yr above its structural peers (3.2%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

  • +Participation of 72.4% (2024) is 1.2 pp above its structural peers (71.2%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Gini of 0.286 (2024) is 0.020 below its structural peers (0.306), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 19,593 (2020) is 21% below its structural peers (RM 24,884).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Piped water of 89.7% (2024) is 9.9 pp below its structural peers (99.5%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 7.5% (2024) is 4.7 pp above its structural peers (2.8%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −1.3% (2020) is 3.2 pp/yr below its structural peers (2.0%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 13.6% (2024) is 7.9 pp above its structural peers (5.7%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION5,397
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 1.0% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000RM 6,500RM 7,000RM 7,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,945
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Lahad Datu's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 670.1 RM milIndustry mix: -381.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -208.5 RM mil−4.4% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 2.0 RM milIndustry mix: 8.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -3.6 RM mil−4ServicesBenchmark growth: 199.6 RM milIndustry mix: 142.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -53.3 RM mil−53AgricultureBenchmark growth: 268.0 RM milIndustry mix: -408.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -98.1 RM mil−98ConstructionBenchmark growth: 17.8 RM milIndustry mix: 16.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -38.3 RM mil−38ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 182.7 RM milIndustry mix: -140.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -15.1 RM mil−15
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 5,526 vs expected RM 4,859: better than structure predicts

Labour force participation+7.9%Unemployment rate-5.2%Share aged 65++4.5%Population density-3.5%Agriculture share of GDP-3.0%Manufacturing share of GDP-1.4%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 13.6% vs expected 23.4%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+7.3 ppGDP per capita (2020)-3.0 ppPiped-water access+2.4 ppServices share of GDP+0.7 ppLabour force participation-0.6 ppElectricity access-0.5 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1KluangJohorServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2SegamatJohorServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3MuallimPerakServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4SipitangSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5PontianJohorServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Mersing (Johor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +7.6 vs +6.9 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • labour force participation: lower (72.40 → 61.30)
  • manufacturing share: lower (5.22 → 2.91, √share)
  • agriculture share: higher (5.78 → 7.29, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Lahad Datu after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +53% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012441 · 5th of 27
2025673 · 7th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,57120246/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.28620242/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,55720247/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 5,52620244/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households13.6%20249/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households3.4%20241/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age67.0%20246/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons131.420244/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age72.4%20247/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force7.5%20246/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households99.8%202420/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households89.7%202411/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.1%202420/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 19,5932020single year4/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million4,488.920204/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP33.4%202011/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP2.4%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP27.2%20203/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.4%202011/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP36.0%202022/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²34202516/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons252.920254/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population6.0%202518/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population39.3%20256/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−1.3%2020single year21/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year5.7%2024single year6/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year3.0%2025single year16/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.0%2025single year9/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area4.0%202519/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.09202517/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)67320257/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Lahad Datu is classified as "Plantation & agrarian frontier" with administrative id sbh-lahad-datu .

Median household income rose from RM 4,186 in 2019 to RM 5,526 in 2024 .

Absolute poverty was 19.3% in 2019 and 13.6% in 2024 .

Published real GDP for the district was RM 4,488.9 (2015 prices) in 2020 and model nowcasts show p50 real GDP of RM 4,778 (80% interval RM 4,524–5,586 million) for 2024 and RM 4,972 (80% interval RM 4,677–5,920 million) for 2025 under the baseline scenario .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up