Kota Belud

Situation

Kota Belud is classified as a "Rural economy with mining & quarrying" by the atlas typology D1.

Median household income was RM 3,512 in 2024 and has risen from RM 3,025 in 2019, showing modest welfare momentum since 2019 D1D2.

Official district GDP is published to 2020 at RM 658.0 million (2015 prices), and model nowcasts project continued real GDP growth with a 2025 central estimate of RM 774 million and an 80% interval RM 728–RM 921, noting these are modelled values not official releases D9D53.

The district’s absolute poverty rate improved to 26.1% in 2024 from 34.0% in 2019, though it remains above its structural peers’ median D4D5D31.

Strengths

• Real GDP growth averaged 3.1% (2015–2020), which the scorecard flags as a strength relative to peers D26.
• Income inequality (Gini) is better than peer median and improving, which the scorecard records as a strength D27.
• The drivers analysis shows median household income is not far below structural expectation and lists GDP per capita and unemployment as the top associated factors, indicating clear, measurable associations to target D62.

Constraints

• Median household income is below peer median and the scorecard records a worsening trend for income versus peers, which is a concern D29.
• GDP per capita is low relative to peers and is flagged as a concern in the scorecard D28.
• The drivers model identifies unemployment and a high agriculture share of GDP as negative associations with median income, highlighting labour-market structure and sectoral composition as constraints D62.
• Absolute poverty remains above the peer median despite improvement, which the scorecard lists as a mixed concern for the district D31.

Options

• Strengthen local labour-market outcomes via active labour programmes and linkages to nearby services towns; evidence strength: moderate—Pasir Puteh (the positive-deviant peer) improved faster since 2019 and represents a structural precedent to study for labour-market change D42.
• Invest targeted rural infrastructure (village roads, water connections) to reduce poverty and improve access; evidence strength: limited—Budget 2025 lists village-road and water allocations for Kota Belud but this is a planned expenditure rather than evaluated impact R1R2.
• Support diversification out of low‑value agriculture by upgrading value chains or small agro-processing, leveraging the competitive GDP contributions seen in shift-share decomposition; evidence strength: moderate—the shift-share shows positive competitive effects over 2015–2020 versus Sabah, suggesting local gains when competitiveness rises D60D61.

Uncertainties

• Official real GDP is published only to 2020; 2021–2027 values are nowcasts/projections and therefore modelled rather than official D9D49D54.
• Income projections are modelled beyond 2024; the 2025 median income central estimate is RM 3,599 with an 80% interval RM 3,311–RM 3,920, so interpreted cautiously D44.
• Forecast backtests show non-trivial 2–3 year errors for welfare and GDP nowcasts, which widens uncertainty for short-term policy impact assessment D47D57.
• Some infrastructure and programme commitments are listed in budget texts but lack district-level completion or impact reporting in the atlas documents R1R2.

What data would change this view

• An official district real GDP series published for 2021–2025 would replace model nowcasts and materially reduce uncertainty about recent growth D48D53.
• Microdata from the latest household survey with local labour and occupation detail would permit firmer causal assessment of unemployment and sector effects on incomes D62.
• District-level project completion and impact reports for the Budget 2025 rural infrastructure allocations (roads, water, electricity) would change confidence in options that rely on those investments R1R2.