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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah
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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah · District brief · Sandakan Division

Beluran

AI-generated · unreviewed draftData release 2026.09.26 · 42/42 citations verified · azure:gpt-5-mini
Income: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)Poverty: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)Gini: 72th percentile in Sabah (2024)GDP/cap: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020)Services: 4th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgri: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfg: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveDensity: 19th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveInc. growth: 92th percentile in Sabah (2024)GDP growth: 12th percentile in Sabah (2020)LFPR: 27th percentile in Sabah (2024)Jobless: 62th percentile in Sabah (2024)Water: 35th percentile in Sabah (2024)Power: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)Radiance: 12th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit area: 12th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLights growth: 54th percentile in Sabah (2025)

Situation

Beluran is classified as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with a large agriculture share of GDP (73.3%) as of 2020 .

Median household income rose from RM 2,849 in 2019 to RM 4,436 in 2024, showing strong income growth since 2019 .

Absolute poverty improved from 45.0% in 2019 to 33.0% in 2024, though the level remains high relative to peers .

Real GDP was last published for 2020 at RM 1,882 and model nowcasts and projections show a roughly stable central estimate with wide 80% intervals for 2021–2026, indicating modelled rather than official GDP after 2020 .

Strengths

  • Rapid median household income growth since 2019 is a district-level strength relative to structural peers .
  • Improvements in absolute poverty between 2019 and 2024 are trending better, recorded as an improving trend in the scorecard .
  • The district’s median income in 2024 exceeded the model expectation by structure, indicating positive deviation on income versus structural prediction .

Constraints

  • Unemployment is a persistent concern: the 2024 unemployment rate (8.6%) is well above peer median and flagged as a scorecard concern .
  • Real GDP growth over 2015–2020 averaged negative and is a scorecard concern versus peers, reflecting weak output performance in the pre-2020 window .
  • Access to electricity is below peers and is flagged as a concern in the scorecard .
  • Drivers indicate unemployment and low piped-water access are associated with higher poverty than structure predicts, signalling labour-market and service-access constraints linked to welfare outcomes .

Options

  • Invest in labour-market activation and TVET linked to plantation and agri-value chains; evidence: moderate — the national plan emphasises labour-market and TVET reforms as strategies to boost regions like Beluran and peers with similar structure improved employment outcomes through targeted skills programmes (peer precedent: Kinabatangan as a structural peer for comparative study) .
  • Prioritise rural infrastructure for electricity and piped water (including off-grid alternatives); evidence: limited — the Twelfth Malaysia Plan calls for expanding rural electricity and water provision but this is a plan-level commitment rather than an evaluation of impact .
  • Support productivity growth in agriculture and upstream processing to shift the industry mix; evidence: moderate — shift-share shows negative industry-mix and competitive effects over 2015–2020, suggesting structural adjustment could matter and peers with agri-processing have improved incomes .

Uncertainties

  • Median income and poverty are official for 2024 but GDP after 2020 is modelled; gdp_real nowcasts and projections are modelled with 80% intervals, introducing uncertainty in output trends .
  • Forecast backtest errors differ: income_median 2‑yr absolute error ~30.6% and gdp_real 1‑yr 2.8% indicating varying forecast reliability .
  • Some historical access indicators carry boundary-change flags (Telupid inclusion) which complicates trend interpretation for utilities and labour metrics .

What data would change this view

  • Annual official district real GDP published for 2021–2025 would replace model nowcasts and materially change output trend confidence .
  • Labour-market microdata (jobs by industry, wage levels, underemployment) at district annual frequency would clarify the unemployment constraint and its link to poverty .
  • Evaluations of rural electrification and water interventions in Beluran or direct impact studies from comparable peers would upgrade evidence on infrastructure options from limited to moderate or strong .

Sources cited

  1. [D1] Beluran · Median household income · 2024 = RM 4,436 (DOSM hh_income_district; rank 14 of 28 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-12-31)
  2. [D2] Beluran · Median household income · 2019 = RM 2,849 (DOSM hh_income_district; rank 21 of 26 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-12-31)
  3. [D4] Beluran · Absolute poverty rate · 2024 = 33.0% (DOSM hh_poverty_district; rank 24 of 28 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-12-31)
  4. [D5] Beluran · Absolute poverty rate · 2019 = 45.0% (DOSM hh_poverty_district; rank 23 of 26 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-12-31)
  5. [D9] Beluran · GDP at constant 2015 prices · 2020 = 1,881.6 (DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; 7 of 27 in Sabah by size, 1 = highest (descriptive, not good or bad)) (source updated 2024-11-02)
  6. [D11] Beluran · Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average · 2020 = -2.4% (derived by the atlas from DOSM data; rank 24 of 27 in Sabah, 1 = best; note: window:2015-2020)
  7. [D13] Beluran · Unemployment rate · 2024 = 8.6% (DOSM lfs_district; rank 11 of 27 in Sabah, 1 = best) (source updated 2025-06-30)
  8. [D21] Beluran · Agriculture share of GDP · 2020 = 73.3% (derived by the atlas from DOSM data; 2 of 27 in Sabah by size, 1 = highest (descriptive, not good or bad))
  9. [D26] Beluran · Households with electricity · 2016 = 91.3% (DOSM hh_access_amenities; rank 25 of 25 in Sabah, 1 = best; note: boundary_break:includes Telupid) (source updated 2026-08-03)
  10. [D27] Beluran · Households with piped water · 2016 = 50.6% (DOSM hh_access_amenities; rank 23 of 25 in Sabah, 1 = best; note: boundary_break:includes Telupid) (source updated 2026-08-03)
  11. [D28] Beluran · Households with improved sanitation · 2016 = 87.7% (DOSM hh_access_amenities; rank 24 of 25 in Sabah, 1 = best; note: boundary_break:includes Telupid) (source updated 2026-08-03)
  12. [D36] Beluran · Median income growth since 2019 2024: 9.3% vs peer median 5.0%; level above; trend n/a; verdict STRENGTH
  13. [D37] Beluran · Households with electricity 2024: 83.0% vs peer median 100.0%; level below; trend flat (-0.23/yr, 2022–2024); verdict CONCERN (source updated 2026-08-03)
  14. [D38] Beluran · Unemployment rate 2024: 8.6% vs peer median 2.0%; level below; trend flat (-0.10/yr, 2023–2024); verdict CONCERN (source updated 2025-06-30)
  15. [D39] Beluran · Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average 2020: -2.4% vs peer median 0.5%; level below; trend n/a; verdict CONCERN
  16. [D40] Beluran · Absolute poverty rate 2024: 33.0% vs peer median 8.2%; level below; trend improving (+2.35/yr, 2022–2024); verdict MIXED (source updated 2025-12-31)
  17. [D47] Peer 1 of Beluran: Kinabatangan (Sabah), type 'Plantation & agrarian frontier'
  18. [D52] Beluran · income_median latest official 2024 = RM 4,436
  19. [D56] Backtest absolute error for Beluran income_median: 2-yr 30.6%
  20. [D57] Beluran · gdp_real latest official 2020 = 1,882
  21. [D61] Beluran · gdp_real 2024 nowcast: p50 1,881 (80% interval 1,781–2,199)
  22. [D63] Beluran · gdp_real 2026 projection (baseline): p50 1,940 (80% interval 1,800–2,356)
  23. [D66] Backtest absolute error for Beluran gdp_real: 1-yr 2.8%, 2-yr 0.9%, 3-yr 4.5%
  24. [D67] Beluran GDP 2015–2019 vs Sabah: change -196.1; benchmark effect +299.4; industry mix -338.6; competitive -156.9
  25. [D69] Beluran GDP 2015–2020 vs Sabah: change -245.1; benchmark effect +99.4; industry mix -285.2; competitive -59.4
  26. [D71] Beluran Median household income 2024: actual RM 4,436, expected RM 4,093 (within model error; CV error ±RM 649; model ridge); top associated factors: Agriculture share of GDP -0.142; Unemployment rate -0.070; Population density -0.068; Share aged 65+ +0.059
  27. [D72] Beluran Absolute poverty rate 2024: actual 33.0%, expected 27.9% (worse than structure predicts; CV error ±4.1%; model lightgbm); top associated factors: Unemployment rate +10.045; Piped-water access +4.721; Services share of GDP +3.105; Agriculture share of GDP +1.960
  28. [R2] Mid-Term Review of the Twelfth Malaysia Plan - Chapter 5: Progressing towards Regional Balance, Ministry of Economy, Malaysia (Economic Planning Unit), p. 23. https://rmke12.ekonomi.gov.my/ksp/storage/fileUpload/2023/09/2023091136_6_chapter_5.pdf
  29. [R4] Mid-Term Review of the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, 2021-2025: Main Document, Ministry of Economy, Malaysia (Economic Planning Unit), p. 133. https://rmke12.ekonomi.gov.my/ksp/storage/fileUpload/2023/09/2023091145_main_document_ksp_rmke_12.pdf

Generated by the Atlas AI Analyst from official DOSM statistics and the atlas models. Every factual sentence is cited; the validator removed 0 unsupported sentence(s). This draft has not yet been reviewed by a person.