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Atlas Ekonomi Sabah

Beluran

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Kinabatangan, Daro (Sarawak), Rompin (Pahang) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 15th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 72th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 4th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 96th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 19th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 92th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 12th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 27th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 62th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 35th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 12th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 12th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 54th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,436

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,897)

14th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

33.0%

▼ worse than peers (8.2%)

24th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 24,405

≈ in line with peers (RM 23,673)

2nd of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.6%

▼ worse than peers (2.0%)

11th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Income growth of 9.3% (2024) is 4.3 pp/yr above its structural peers (5.0%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Electricity of 83.0% (2024) is 17.1 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 8.6% (2024) is 6.6 pp above its structural peers (2.0%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −GDP growth of −2.4% (2020) is 2.9 pp/yr below its structural peers (0.5%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 33.0% (2024) is 24.8 pp above its structural peers (8.2%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Piped water of 79.5% (2024) is 11.0 pp below its structural peers (90.6%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • Median income of RM 4,436 (2024) is 9% below its structural peers (RM 4,897), growing 15.7 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • Participation of 65.6% (2024) is 2.0 pp below its structural peers (67.6%), improving since 2023.

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • Gini of 0.314 (2024) is 0.035 above its structural peers (0.279), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION1,980
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-dc693205. Backtest error at 3 years: 4.5% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 2,500RM 3,000RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,772
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Beluran's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 299.4 RM milIndustry mix: -338.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -156.9 RM mil−7.4% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.9 RM milIndustry mix: 4.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.5 RM mil−0ServicesBenchmark growth: 37.9 RM milIndustry mix: 27.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -31.6 RM mil−32AgricultureBenchmark growth: 228.2 RM milIndustry mix: -348.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -84.0 RM mil−84ConstructionBenchmark growth: 2.0 RM milIndustry mix: 1.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -4.0 RM mil−4ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 30.4 RM milIndustry mix: -23.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -36.8 RM mil−37
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,436 vs expected RM 4,093: within model error

Agriculture share of GDP-13.3%Unemployment rate-6.7%Population density-6.5%Share aged 65++6.1%GDP per capita (2020)+2.6%Piped-water access-1.9%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 33.0% vs expected 27.9%: worse than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+10.0 ppPiped-water access+4.7 ppServices share of GDP+3.1 ppAgriculture share of GDP+2.0 ppElectricity access+2.0 ppGDP per capita (2020)-1.6 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1KinabatanganSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2DaroSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  3. 3RompinPahangPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4SubisSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  5. 5MersingJohorPlantation & agrarian frontier

Beluran improved at least as fast as its ten nearest structural neighbours since 2019.

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,750202423/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.31420248/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 4,993202422/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,436202414/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households33.0%202424/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households17.0%202415/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age60.0%202420/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons42.1202412/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age65.6%202420/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.6%202411/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households83.0%202426/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households79.5%202418/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 24,4052020single year2/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,881.620207/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP73.3%20202/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP1.0%202018/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP9.1%20208/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.5%202010/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP16.0%202026/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²16202522/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons90.6202513/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population5.2%202520/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population49.0%20254/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−2.4%2020single year24/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year9.3%2024single year3/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year3.9%2025single year13/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year3.3%2025single year3/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area1.8%202524/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.02202524/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)105202520/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Beluran is classified as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with a large agriculture share of GDP (73.3%) as of 2020 .

Median household income rose from RM 2,849 in 2019 to RM 4,436 in 2024, showing strong income growth since 2019 .

Absolute poverty improved from 45.0% in 2019 to 33.0% in 2024, though the level remains high relative to peers .

Real GDP was last published for 2020 at RM 1,882 and model nowcasts and projections show a roughly stable central estimate with wide 80% intervals for 2021–2026, indicating modelled rather than official GDP after 2020 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up