Tenom

Situation

Tenom is a remote-interior district with a services-led GDP share and lower-than-average GDP per capita among Sabah districts, with GDP per capita RM 7,844 in 2020 D10D23.

Median household income in Tenom rose from RM 3,525 in 2019 to RM 4,161 in 2024, placing it above its structural peers in 2024 but with a slight recent worsening trend versus peers D2D1D30.

Absolute poverty has fallen from 17.2% in 2019 to 12.1% in 2024 and is stronger than peers on the scorecard D5D4D26.

Model nowcasts project gradual income and GDP increases through 2027 but these are modelled values with 80% intervals (income_median 2025 p50 RM 4,264, interval RM 3,923–RM 4,644; gdp_real 2024 p50 470, interval 445–549) D44D52.

Strengths

• Tenom’s absolute poverty rate is better than its peers and has been improving recently D26.
• Tenom’s income inequality (Gini) is slightly better than peers and stable D27.
• Median household income level in 2024 is above the peer median despite a mixed recent trend D30.
• Driver analysis shows actual median income is slightly above structural expectation, indicating some resilience relative to structure (actual RM 4,161 vs expected RM 4,051) D62.

Constraints

• Unemployment is a clear concern: Tenom’s unemployment rate at 11.1% in 2024 is worse than peer median and has been flagged as a concern D13D28.
• Piped-water access is below peer median and flagged mixed despite improvement, which is associated with worse income and poverty outcomes in the drivers D29D62D63.
• Competitive effects in past shift-share decomposition were negative, indicating local competitiveness weakened growth relative to benchmarks in 2015–2020 D60D61.

Options

• Prioritise active labour-market measures (training, placement) to address high unemployment; Evidence: moderate — labour-market reform and TVET strengthening are recommended nationally in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan R4.
• Expand piped-water and alternative rural water supply investments to raise access; Evidence: strong for infrastructure expansion as a strategy to narrow rural-urban gaps in the national plan, though district-level impact evaluation is limited R2.
• Leverage peer learning from Tambunan, the positive deviant, to adapt interventions that improved welfare momentum (Tambunan improved faster since 2019); Evidence: moderate — structural peer improvement cited in the atlas as a precedent D42.
• Support value-adding in services and small manufacturing where local mix allows to reverse competitive weakness; Evidence: limited — strategy guidance for rural economic unlocking exists in national plans but evaluated district-level impacts are not provided R2R3.

Uncertainties

• Recent income and GDP values for 2021–2027 are nowcasts/projections and therefore modelled; intervals are wide enough that central estimates are uncertain (income_median 2025 p50 RM 4,264, interval RM 3,923–RM 4,644) D44D52.
• Shift-share indicates past competitive weakness but does not identify causal channels (industry-mix and competitive components differ by benchmark) D58D60.
• Some service and infrastructure statistics are descriptive only and not used to form strengths/constraints in the scorecard D16D17D18.

What data would change this view

• Annual district-level labour-market outcomes (employment by sector, vacancies, and UI registrant placements) to test whether interventions reduce the 11.1% unemployment rate D13R4.
• Recent administrative evaluations of water-supply projects and their household-level impacts to confirm the effectiveness of piped-water expansion in Tenom D29R2.
• Outturn data and impact evaluations of Tambunan’s reforms to validate peer-transferability of interventions that raised welfare momentum D42.